My how things in just a few years, especially in Asia - why I can remember the RAND Think Tank putting out a really nice piece (nearly 300 page report) on China's International Behavior, assuring us that China was no threat to the rest of the world. Still, when I look deeper we see RAND is sponsored by various groups one of which, I truly believe is somewhat white-washing reality to propel a different sort of agenda, of which I don't fully understand.
Now then, if you will recall just a couple of years ago Japan basically told the US to pack up our stuff and move our military base there, downsize and put a little satellite base there, downsize and put a little satellite base out of the way. Remember the big uproar, it was a major campaign issue, and the Japanese voters threw out the old guard and took over the country in a political firestorm.
Now, it seems so much has changed with regards to all our best predictions of US Relations with Japan and China, in so many ways. For instance, we see China is not assisting (debated - but certainly not very hard) in the North Korea dispute to disarm their nuclear weapons, which I suppose could be expected, after all where do you think North Korea got that technology in the first place, and seriously, I do ask the reader not to give me that story about the world infamous Pakistani scientist and proliferator giving North Korea that technology.
We also find China selling advanced defense systems to Iran, trading weapons for oil to (what could be considered) illegitimate African Nation regimes. Challenging its neighbors for territorial waters (there have been many incidents between the US, Taiwan, Japan in the last couple of years), and while making "air craft carrier killer anti-ship ICBM like missiles. Surely, you recall the harassment of a US warship in the straits of Taiwan, the issues in the Sea of Japan with fishing vessels, and the Taiwan-China spats leading to further challenges in international diplomacy. And well, who can forget the P-3 incident which led to a stale-mate and increased international tensions between the US and China.
We see China building bases and sea ports along all the sea cargo corridors and straits, which seems to be more than just about trade cargo security of its fleets of cargo vessels in many cases, and more about strategic military-sea choke points (yes, one could debate that either way, but I see a pattern here). Consider if you will in the future, that is to say, once the anti-ship missiles go into those locations, and the radar systems (portable or fixed). You see, in my view, we will all know that the academics and politicians who don't know or understand China's good ole' boy communist leadership faction will have been shown wrong at that point.
However, I predict this within the next 24-months. Seriously people, let's not be so nave, consider these potential eventual realities. I am not trying to scare anyone here, but let's really look at the patterns of behavior and not be so quick to write off our observations for a few academic papers, a Rand Think Tank Report, or some wishful thinking. The trade winds are blowing, the trade wars are going, and the future is coming.
Like I said; "Chinese and Japanese Spat Over Territorial Waters Reminds Me of a Bully in Junior High." Hmm, but the China we know as an adolescent is growing up now, what will it be like in its high-testosterone 20's? Maybe it might be prudent to consider a little tough-love, draw some lines and boundaries of what is and what is not appropriate behavior in the world.
It's of course, always good to form your own opinion on threat assessments, don't just take my word for it, or adopt my views and opinions based on years of observations and studies. Do your own research, and with that -I offer some of the following for you to review and then I hope you will please think on this.
Now then, I recommend that you read some of the recent articles in the Wall Street Journal to see how the tension has been ramping up lately
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References:
1.) Sean Chen, John Feffer, " CHINA'S MILITARY SPENDING: SOFT RISE OR HARD THREAT?" published in ASIAN PERSPECTIVE, Vol. 33, No. 4, 2009, pp. 47-67.
2.) Stephen Daggett, " Quadrennial Defense Review 2010: Overview and Implications for National Security Planning," Congressional Research Service, May 17, 2010.
3.) "China's International Behavior - Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification," by Medeiros, Evan S. and Rand Project Air Force, Arlington VA, Published by RAND Think Tank, 2009, pp. 280, Accession Number: ADA508156 - ISBN 978-0-8330-4709-0.
4.) "Red Dragon Rising - Communist China's Military Threat to America," by Edward Timberlake & William C Triplett II, Regnery Publications division of Eagle Publishing, Washington DC, 1999, pp. 271, ISBN: 0-89526-258-4.
5.) "China - the Gathering Threat," by Constantine C Mengers, PhD, Nelson Current division of Nelson Communication, Nashville TN, 2005, ISBN: 1-5955-5005-4, pp. 567.
Lance Winslow is the Founder of the Online Think Tank, a diverse group of achievers, experts, innovators, entrepreneurs, thinkers, futurists, academics, dreamers, leaders, and general all around brilliant minds. Lance Winslow hopes you've enjoyed today's discussion and topic. http://www.WorldThinkTank.net - Have an important subject to discuss, contact Lance Winslow.
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