An Issue For President Obama's First Visit to China - China's Worry About Japan's Military

China and other Asian nations are beginning to assess how the recent election victory by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will alter Japanese defense policies.

Beijing is hoping for a reversal or at least a slowdown of Japan's efforts in recent years to build up its defenses against the growing military power of China, especially any joint defense efforts with the United States.

Asian security issues are expected to be high on President Obama's agenda when he visits China in November. China and other Asian nations are beginning to assess how the recent election victory by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will alter Japanese defense policies.

Beijing is hoping for a reversal or at least a slowdown of Japan's efforts in recent years to build up its defenses against the growing military power of China, especially any joint defense efforts with the United States.

Asian security issues are expected to be high on President Obama's agenda when he visits China in November.

The DPJ's landslide victory Aug. 30 prompted calls among leaders for an "equal U.S.-Japan relationship." But it may be weeks before it is clear what such an equal relationship will mean.

Japan's conservative newspaper Sankei Shimbun has called for continuity "based on the alliance." The more moderate Yomiuri Shimbun thinks the DPJ, in calling for an alliance of equals, is "simply clinging to an abstract idea that lacks specific policies" and it warned the DPJ to "avoid words and actions that could weaken the alliance."

Japan's liberal newspaper Asahi Shimbun has forecast that the new policy will be revealed in two weeks when new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama attends the U.N. General Assembly and Group of 20 summit this month. Asahi also wants "reassurance to the Japanese people and the international community." No one seems to know whether the DPJ really wants to renegotiate the Pentagon plans for Japan to fund the transfer of most U.S. military forces from Okinawa to Guam in the next few years.

Japan's neighboring countries are also worried about major changes by the DPJ in its defense strategy. Hong Kong's center-left Sing Tao Daily warns that if Japan "wants to ride this recovery train, its diplomacy has to tilt more toward China."

Beijing's Youth Daily says Mr. Hatoyama's stated intention not to visit the World War II Yasukuni shrine, a controversial symbol for many Asian countries, has been taken by China as a "positive signal."

South Korean media are concerned about the DPJ approach to China, and to the six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program. South Korea's leftist Hankyoreh Shinmun describes Japan's past "insistence on bringing up citizen abduction issues that are not directly related to the agenda" as having a "deleterious effect" on the talks and now welcomes Mr. Hatoyama's openness to possible dialogue with Pyongyang.

China's state-run Global Times warns that Japan should avoid seeing itself as "the big boss in Asia."

Taiwanese commentators worry that closer relations with China could lead it to concede to possible requests from Beijing to push Taiwan out of the U.S.-Japan security relationship.

South Korea's Chosun Ilbo argues for continuity because the U.S.-Japan alliance has been "an axis of Northeast Asian security alongside the U.S.-Korea alliance.

Why does China's media seem so alarmed about the Japanese military? Judging from Chinese comments, there are seven major developments over the past few years that Beijing is seeking to cancel or stall.

* Japan's army divisions deployed in western and southern areas closer to China have been left largely intact despite cuts in the north. In 2002, the 700-strong Western Army Infantry Regiment charged with amphibious operations was formed in Nagasaki prefecture and a brigade based in Okinawa. It doubled its maneuver elements and added more than 850 personnel. The F-4 air-defense squadron on Okinawa was upgraded to a squadron of F-15s. Japan discussed deploying ground forces and jet fighters on small islands located about halfway between Okinawa and Taiwan.

* The 2005-09 Mid-Term Defense Program established the Central Readiness Force (CRF). The CRF brings many of Japan's mobile and special units under a single command reporting directly to the defense chief. CRF units include Japan's Helicopter Brigade, Airborne Brigade, Special Operations Group (established 2004) and Chemical Defense Unit, which could play a role in against any hypothetical Chinese seizure of the Senkaku Islands.

* Between 1998 and 2003, the Maritime Self-Defense Forces commissioned three 14,700-ton Osumi-class ships, designated as landing ships. Four times as large as any previous Japanese landing ship, the Osumi can accommodate two large hovercraft.

From 2010 to 2014, two large helicopter carriers are to be built, in this case designated as a destroyer but resembling small aircraft carriers. At 20,000 tons when fully loaded, they will be able to handle AV-8s Harriers or some versions of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

* Contingency plans for operations against China have been generated for the first time, and training has been adjusted accordingly. In November 2004, the Defense Agency compiled plans for counteroffensive operations in the event China seized the disputed Senkaku Islands east of Taiwan, according to BBC reporting from Tokyo.

* The Japanese media have reported that these plans call for dispatching troops, warplanes, destroyers and submarines. During the first phases, sea- and air-reconnaissance craft would provide intelligence. Finally, units of the Western Army Infantry Regiment (Nagasaki), designated as Japan's amphibious assault force, would retake the captured islands.

* In February 2006, a Yamasaki exercise, a biannual joint Japan-U.S. Army command-post exercise, focused for the first time on a counteroffensive scenario against enemy forces occupying one or more small southwestern islands, according to Sankei newspaper.

* In June 2007, eight Japanese F-2s fighter-bombers deployed to Guam and conducted the aircraft's first-ever live-bomb runs. It was only the third time that any Japanese fighter aircraft had conducted bombing runs in the organization's 60-year history.

The shift in political power in Tokyo, when combined with China's continuing lack of transparency in its military buildup, deserves close attention in the weeks and months ahead. Prior to Mr. Obama's trip to China, the United States will need to examine carefully what changes the new DPJ has in mind for China.

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Why is China's Top Military Brass Making Threats to the US Military?

It is time for China's top military brass to stop making threats in the media concerning the US military, or the United States of America. If the top military men in China cannot seem to hold their mouths, then it's time for them to retire with honors, and let a new group take over. You see, the United States is not an enemy of China; we are their best trading partner, and we have a rather insane trade deficit of hundreds of billions of dollars per year to show for it.

If China's military men continue to make threats such as the one that recently came up in the world news; "If the United States interferes with the reunification of Taiwan, then China will have no other option but to use nuclear weapons against America." Wow, that's pretty insane. And when it comes right down to it, if Taiwan wants to reunite with China, that is a strategic decision for that country and a merger would then take place after negotiation between the two countries, it really has nothing to do with the United States.

If China takes it militarily and tries to take Taiwan by force, then it is a world problem, and the United States will be involved. Just like if China tried to conquer Japan for instance, or marched into South Korea and said all this is ours now. That's the real issue. If China thinks they can make threats to the United States military over a potential future scenario involving Taiwan, then those military men do not understand the US middle class consumer.

You see, if China makes such threats, the population in the United States would stop buying Chinese goods tomorrow we would send all of those ships back full, and China's exports would plunge another 50% on top of the 50% they've already plunged due to the global economic crisis. It is the US consumer that is funding China's military expansion currently, and if all that money stopped tomorrow, the entire country would be in shambles and on the verge of riot within a couple of quarters.

Indeed, I hope you will please consider this because it is unacceptable what those top military men are doing, they need to be removed and if the President of China does not have the strength of character to see that, then perhaps he no longer needs to be the leader either. Please consider all this.

Not long ago, I mentioned this to Guang Wu, the author of a new book; "China: Has the Last Opportunity Passed by!?" and he understood the frustration of the American Consumers on this issue.

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Chinese Rise to Military Dominance Continues

China is progressing very well with its goals to have the strongest military in the world, which kind of freaks out many military analysts in the United States, because, the USA would protect China if anyone would attack them, which no one would dare. So, why is China gearing up such a strong military, can it be that they wish to challenge the United States someday or show their superior power to prevent anyone from interfering with their long-term (well, maybe not too long-term) strategy for the re-unification of Taiwan?

After all, amongst the stated goals of China's supreme leader, they wish to develop high speed intelligent torpedoes, but why? Are they planning on targeting US warships or challenging them on the high seas, or within their regional seas? Could be say some, as they are also looking into Stealthy Submarines and Long Range High Accuracy Missiles. And China makes no qualms about wanting to build a better and stronger Navy to fight in regional Sea Wars.

In fact, if you look closely the ancient Treasure Fleet, sails again and soon the Chinese will once again have more ships in their Navy than any other nation on the planet. And considering their nuclear submarines, well, one could hardly deny that they are well on their way. The Chinese rise to military dominance continues and indeed, it is merely a matter of time until they surpass the US Navy and have strength greater than all the other nations in the world combined. That day is coming fast, and within a decade or two it will be upon us. So, please consider this.

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Chinese Military Build Up - Sun Tzu and Chinese War Machine

We are currently seeing a build up in China of their military, with 7 new classes of warships. Buying of 15 Billion worth of jet fighters from Russia, advances in Space which can lead to Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, Electromagnetic Weapons, training and recruiting of personal for army. Taiwan is extremely concerned as is Japan, Russia is thrilled having been able to sell them technologically advanced weaponry. Our defense industry is upset seeing sales go to other countries, also alarming in our trade deficit and money flows out of our country to China, which is being used to buy the weapons in the first place. Airbus is establishing a military division to catch some of that money flow too, having watched Boeing which also sells military and commercial make major end roads to markets thru R and D partially coming from US Government, which as we know has been a debate in the EU and fair trade rules as Airbus is funded in part and subsidized by European governments who are simultaneously deficit spending. The selling of weapons in the world is quite alarming and makes the case for Iranian or North Korea's nuclear weapon ambitions a tough one, in that shouldn't a country have the right to defend itself? A worthy debate although a government, which has proved untrustworthy in the past obviously should never be trusted with such destructive power which once used would surely change the history of mankind.

China is aware of the World's concern with the largest population base in the World and expanding industrial might, such concerns are warranted. One issue of supreme insight would be that of Dr. Einstein; "You cannot simultaneously prepare and prevent war." China says it wants to defend itself. Which is a noble cause of any nation, right? Yes, but the question is from whom? No one country on Earth is up to a challenge of the Chinese Military, except maybe the US, which of course is a trading partner whose purchases are funding their economy and their war machine. Having the world's largest and most powerful Army, Air Force and Navy has been for over 25 years undisputed territory of the United States. Chinese war theory predicts forcing political will without use of force or if possible not fighting a single battle as adequate method. If China wishes to force its political will with Taiwan, then who might defend them? Will the US show up for a political game poker game where each side tries to bluff the other. Chinese culture is much different than Western Culture despite the closeness in the end goals of the civilizations (certainly worthy of discussion for another topic). China is well aware of the tension created by this build up and the power and what that means for its future forceful negotiations of will. China currently does not wish to rock the boat until it has the military might to play at the poker table with the EU or with the United States and has suggested a Hotline to Washington DC in the interim. Keeping up communication is important to peaceful solutions to military issues, but are we playing into a grander plan. By opening military force hotline are we in fact admitting and raising their status as a World Power?

China, US Discuss Setting Up Defense Hotline

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-05o.html

"Beijing (XNA) Feb 01, 2005 - Chinese Defense Ministry and its US counterpart rounded off their first special policy dialogue here Tuesday with both voicing their satisfactions, a sign of warming ties between two militaries of the two countries."

China is also testing its power and practicing the modern art of war:

China, Russia To Hold First Ever Joint Military Drill

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-05n.html

"Beijing (AFP) Feb 01, 2005 - Russia and China will conduct their first ever joint military exercises in August or September to better coordinate the fight against terrorism, state media reported Tuesday."

The United States if it really expects to remain the world leader militarily ought to take notes of these trends and set a course to maintain the ability to negotiate from a position of strength and be prepared to make an example of any nation which tries to force our their will against us or our allies with annihilating force so that China realizes that we are not into the bluffing game and will not tolerate imperialism from any other nation in the future periods. Without such a demonstration China will test us with Taiwan and then other allies to see how far we can be pushed. Such a series of signs will be very similar to a previous set of threats which history had showed us during Germany's build up to power. We should be ready to negotiate but not fear the ultimate example and display of power to put away any possible attempt for any other nation to bluff us into backing down on what we know to be right.

This should not be a considered a warning of future events to come, but we should be ready and prepared to defend the free world and use unheard of force if necessary and all those in the wake should know in advance that we do not do threats, we do not play with bluffers and we will prevail no matter what. Do not challenge the free world and never mistake the United States' acts of kindness for a sign of weakness.

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Advanced Defense Systems and Military Sales to Taiwan Worries

Many military defense contractors, high-tech executives the Silicon Valley, our State Department, and the top brass in the military believe that the Chinese have been stealing high-tech and military secrets for years. Therefore, anything that we develop, which we think is a secret, is already known by the Chinese, and they are already secretly working on it themselves. In fact in the world of spies, this went on throughout the Cold War, only that time it was Russia.

If you'll recall every time the US came out with a new fighter aircraft, a missile, a new ship, a new radar system, or a new aircraft bomber, the Russians had one that looked almost identical. This still happens today in fact the T-50, a fifth-generation stealth Russian fighter plane looks a lot like the F-22 raptor. If all this is taking place, then why are we so worried about selling our military equipment to our allies, and why are we so worried that they might spill the beans and give this information to our enemies?

Indeed, the reality is the enemies probably already have it all and they probably already know more than we think about all the high-tech weapons systems we are engineering, and researching presently. According to an article in Taiwan News on July 30, 2010 entitled; "The US Worries About Taiwan's Military Transfer to China," and we should be worried about stuff like this. But we should also realize that they probably already have all this information anyhow.

The Chinese don't like the idea of the United States selling late model fighter aircraft to Taiwan, putting in a missile defense system, or anything else similar to this. However, if the US does go ahead with all of these sales, there is a good chance the Chinese will have this technology sometime in the future when Taiwan and China are reunified in some way and become one in the future. There's a good chance this could happen down the road without a fight due to China's enormous military, let's say in a couple of decades from now.

Should we really be concerned, because if we really are concerned about China getting our secret weapon components, then perhaps we should be more concerned with the 6000 spies that are all over the United States including Silicon Valley, grabbing all of our secret technologies. We need to do one of two things, we need to stop the spying, increase military intelligence and surveillance on our so-called friends, enemies, and allies who are stealing our military secrets, or we need to just say forget it, and realize they already have it all.

If we choose the latter this could be good for US defense contractors to sell our military technology all over the world. We won't be giving it to our adversaries or potential future enemies, because they already have it. It seems all too often that we are just kidding ourselves when we think we are somehow protecting our secrets, as we so freely give them away out the back door. Even though this is all philosophical, it does matter, it matters very much, and I am quite concerned. Please consider all this.

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China's Less Than Transparent Military Build Up

US Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte, in Beijing this week for talks with Chinese Foreign Ministry officials, urged China to be more transparent about its military build up.

The Chinese have just bumped up military spending by 17.8% this year.

Asking the Chinese to be transparent about their military agenda is a bit like casually asking Darth Vader to be transparent about the Empire's new and improved Death Star plans. It ain't going to happen.

Chinese ship building has been in high gear since 2002. Amphibious assault vessels, capable of ferrying troops have been a major focus. Some intelligence estimates suggest that some 20 of these vessels are in the works, along with a fleet of submarines.

Why the urgency? Some of this build-up relates to ongoing tensions with Taiwan - territory China has never relinquished and threatens to take back if the Taiwanese make any move toward de facto independence.

To demonstrate that this is no mere posturing, the National People's Congress is in the process of introducing a law that will make the formal secession of Taiwan forbidden. Definitions covering so-called "separatist activity" will also be addressed, as will the role of "traitors" - together with proposed penalties.

The Taiwanese government has described the legislation as laying "a legal base for an invasion".

The Chinese Congress through mouthpiece Jiang Enzhu denies such allegations and plays down any provocative interpretation of the law. Meanwhile yuan keeps getting pumped into an arms build-up that continues to heft up.

Given the Chinese history of aggression toward Tibet, accompanied as it was with a litany of denials and justifications to mollify world opinion, any Taiwanese citizens who sit easily with Chinese reassurances would have to be smoking something other than tobacco.

According to US Department of Defense sources the Peoples Liberation Army now has around 700 ballistic missiles near the Taiwan Strait. Hong-Niao cruise missiles are also in production. This build up has had the effect of overturning Taiwan's edge in the face-off across the Strait. The advantage has shifted decidedly to the side of mainland China.

Despite the large amounts of cash being funneled into the military with the aim of projecting Chinese power not only in the direction of Taiwan, but far beyond its borders - the Chinese army is untested when it comes to modern warfare. It's been 25 years since the PLA was involved in serious combat.

They are trying to off-set this deficit by engaging in joint military exercises with Russia. In August of this year, exercises took place in the Liadong Peninsula. The PLA needs to be able to compare its capabilities with a major military player, and for the present Putin seems willing to oblige.

The Chinese military escalation also involves military espionage on a large scale (predictably denied by the Chinese). US industries have been routinely targeted by spies working for China.

A notorious 2005 case involved a Korean spy named Ko-Suen Moo. He managed to ferry a F110-GE-129 turbofan engine (used to power F-16 fighters into upper speed ranges) - out of the US. It ended up in Shenyang, in northeastern China and Ko-Suen cleared $1 million in profits over and above his original investment.

This is just one case of many. Given all the evidence it would appear the Chinese are making a concerted effort to scour the globe for any military secrets they can lay their hands on.

So when John Negroponte asks for transparency from Beijing, the rejoinder "good luck" sounds like an exercise in irony.

Aidan Maconachy is a freelance writer and artist based in Ontario. You can visit his blog at http://aidanmaconachyblog.blogspot.com/

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